Boris Johnson risks withdrawing the British from the blockade against their will – POLITICO

James Johnson is co-founder of J.L. Partners and senior advisor to Kekst CNC. She previously conducted surveys on Downing Street under the leadership of Prime Minister Theresa May.

LONDON – "Going down the mountain is more dangerous."

These were the words of the British Prime Minister on Sunday evening as he outlined the government's next steps in the fight against the coronavirus. It is a true statement of the risks and challenges ahead, both the struggle to keep the rate of reproduction of the disease low and the sacrifices we will have to make as a country. The same is true of the political risks that Boris Johnson now faces.

So far, Johnson has received strong approval ratings, among the best in the Western world. The Conservatives' voting intentions received a boost, reaching record levels for a ruling party. People have also been more united among the political divisions of the parties than British politics has seen in many years, either because of their strong support for the blockade measures, or in terms of how the people are seen. Johnson.

But as we advance carefully to the other side of the peak, the terrain is already changing. NAIL YouGov survey released MondayDue to confusion over government messages, support for easing government restrictions was found to be only 44%, compared to 43%. Opinions now seem to differ depending on which party someone supports, far from 76% of Conservative voters and 83% of Labor voters who supported the government's previous blockade policy.

However, the biggest threat to the British government does not come from a communications failure, but from a larger phenomenon more entrenched in the public psyche. Compared to other countries, the British public has come out of isolation against their will.

It might sound strange to say, with pictures of people crowded in the parks over the weekend, and traffic on the roads increasing at the start of the work week. But the British public's sense of active obedience This means that we are still likely to follow our government out of the running of the bulls, even if we think it might be a bad idea. As the rules and tone change, people naturally change their behavior. These are not specific rule breakers at the start of the first block, but people who feel they have been allowed to do more and do just that, even if they don't particularly agree with that. It may seem inconsistent, but a rule of public opinion is that the public is always allowed to play back and forth.

Because at the same time, the British people are so much more determined to save lives. This was the conclusion of the KekstCNC latest international survey, showing that 73% of Britons want the government to limit the spread of the disease and prevent death, even if it means recession or depression and major job losses. Other countries are much less safe: only 44% say this in Sweden, 49% in Germany.

The UK is also particularly united in this area, with people of all age groups prioritizing saving lives, reversing the trend in other countries where young people are more willing to push through. economy first.

There are different opinions as to why this is so. The obvious answer is the death toll in the UK, but other countries in high numbers, like the United States, do not share the same sentiment to such a degree. There is also no clear pattern related to the relaxation or severity of the different blocks.

Focus groups have shown that Johnson's experience with the virus has changed the way risk is viewed in the UK, moving from a mild flu-like illness to a blind killer who could knock out n & # 39; 39; anyone much easier. what was supposed.

Whatever the explanation, this difference is important because the British public wants the government to put its life above the economy. Their benchmark for the government's success in this crisis is not economic growth, or simply to prevent the NHS's ability to be exceeded, but rather that deaths are declining and staying low.

In Germany and Sweden, the public is aligned with their governments. While the blockades are lifted, or in the case of Sweden, the measures remain relaxed, they want to focus more on the economy. In the United States, while Democrats would undoubtedly be mortified by a second spike, unprecedented polarization means that many Republicans support the President and an out-of-prison movement, whatever the consequences. President Trump even talks about the likelihood of further deaths as a result of his approach, a completely unimaginable position in the UK. In other words, in many other countries, the public feels partly guilty of lifting the blockade.

The British are not. Instead, in general, the blockade was lifted without your permission. If deaths increase, they will neither be forgiven nor forgotten; it will not be considered inevitable or a reasonable price to start the economy. In any country, a second peak would have tragic consequences. But in the UK, the political damage has the potential to be much greater than in other countries.

And all the signs indicate that this blame will fall on the door of the government. Gone are the days when a privileged few broke the rules of the blockade, as did the waves of most young men in early April, who became the legitimate source of public anger. Some journalists, such as Krishnan Guru-Murphy and Emily Maitlis, have suggested that the recent confusion over government messages could be deliberate, "part of a larger denial strategy", which the public blames itself for. But government is much more often the province of whim than conspiracy. And even if that were true, voters seldom blame themselves for anything.

Other political parties are aware of this. While real concerns are undoubtedly his main motivation, it will be in the minds of Scottish Prime Minister Nicola Sturgeon when formulating his different approach, as well as Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham, while critics of the government of Westminster are stepping up. Above all, Labor leader Keir Starmer will reflect on this by introducing himself to the nation.

Downing Street is also aware of the risk. The Sunday Times reported Last week, "high-ranking conservative sources" said members of the government had an eye on other national leaders' approval ratings. "All of the leaders had great support at the top, but now that support has started," the source said. They said: "We are entering a moment of maximum political risk".

Due to the unique circumstances in Britain, due to the unique view of the public, this risk could be much higher than in other countries.

Claims that the government is irretrievably dismissed are clearly false. We have been overwhelmingly conservative for six months in over 30 years. Even with the problems at the start of the pandemic in March, people tend to vote for political parties based on what they seem to do next, rather than punishing or rewarding them for what they do. they already did. And, of course, there is every chance that Johnson can overcome the difficulties and regain the victory.

But the reputation will surely be made and lost during this crisis. This reputation will continue in the next general election, this time with a competent Labor leader who is not excluded by voters who are undecided at the mere mention of his name. It's a tough journey up the mountain, and it's only just begun.