Después de 40 años, American Airlines acaba de revelar un desarrollo sorprendente

Heaven32 14/03/2021 Comments

Esta es una historia de $ 10 mil millones sobre American Airlines y una lección para cualquier ejecutivo de negocios.

Describo algo así en mi libro electrónico gratuito. Flying Business Class: 12 reglas para ejecutivos de aerolíneas estadounidenses, lo que puedas Descarga aquí.

En resumen, le gustaría creer que comprende en qué negocio se encuentra, ¿no es así? Bueno, los desarrollos de los últimos 12 meses han demostrado que American Airlines (y United y algunas otras también) tienen un negocio muy lucrativo además de simplemente transportar personas desde el punto A al punto B.

Es algo que los forasteros pueden no haber entendido y que las aerolíneas no necesariamente querían discutir en profundidad hasta hace poco.

40 años en la fabricación

Supongo que la historia comienza en 1981 cuando American Airlines lanzó el segundo programa de viajero frecuente: AAdvantage.

La aerolínea en sí tenía más de 50 años en ese momento, y se puede agradecer la desregulación de la década de 1970 y el aumento de la competencia entre aerolíneas para desarrollar el programa. AAdvantage ha crecido con las posibilidades durante las décadas siguientes.

Luego, hace varios años, un analista llamado Joseph DeNardi intentó fijar el precio de AAdvantage junto con todos los programas de viajero frecuente de las otras aerolíneas, argumentando que eran tan valiosos que las aerolíneas deberían considerarlos como entidades separadas.

De hecho, DeNardi calculó que las aerolíneas probablemente generarían miles de millones en “ingresos de marketing” por la venta de puntos de viajero frecuente a los bancos para que esos bancos pudieran usarlos para engañar a los clientes para que usen tarjetas de crédito.

Calculó que American Airlines podría haber ganado $ 1,150 millones con estos programas en la primera mitad de 2018, liderando la industria. United Airlines ganó 962 millones de dólares en el mismo período, sospechaba. Delta: $ 805 millones. Y así sucesivamente por las aerolíneas más pequeñas.

Enfréntate a verdades brutales

Esto provino de llamadas de ganancias con ejecutivos de la aerolínea, incluido Doug Parker, director ejecutivo de American Airlines. Digamos que las aerolíneas no estuvieron de acuerdo con la premisa.

Pero luego vino la pandemia y la desaceleración de los viajes aéreos globales, el momento más desafiante de la industria recordado y la oportunidad de enfrentar algunas verdades brutales.

Esta semana, aprendimos más sobre uno de ellos cuando American Airlines realmente estableció un precio implícito para AAdvantage: anunció planes para cerrar $ 7.5 mil millones en fondos en bonos y préstamos apalancados a través del programa de lealtad respaldado.

Unos días después, aparentemente hubo tanta demanda que American Airlines revisó su Presentación ante la Comisión de Bolsa y Valores para reflejar que había aumentado la transacción a $ 10 mil millones.

Primero, la capitalización de mercado total de American Airlines el viernes fue de menos de $ 15 mil millones.
En segundo lugar, como parte de ese acuerdo, American Airlines formó una “empresa exenta de las Islas Caimán recién incorporada”, AAdvantage Loyalty IP Ltd.
Tercera, Presentación del inversor American AAdvantage, que tuvo que presentarse ante la SEC, muestra que la aerolínea realizó una venta en efectivo pro forma de casi $ 6 mil millones en 2019 como resultado de AAdvantage.

Lo digo de nuevo: estudia las aerolíneas

Le pedí a American Airlines más contexto sobre todo esto. Se negaron a compartir nada más, citando el hecho de que el acuerdo aún no se ha finalizado, y señalaron que Parker se presentará en la Conferencia Industrial de JP Morgan el lunes.

Independientemente, no se trata realmente de evaluar si American Airlines ha calificado correctamente su programa de lealtad después de 40 años. En cambio, como siempre, se trata de aprender las lecciones para los ejecutivos de todas las industrias que puede aprender al estudiar las aerolíneas.

Aquí creo que la lección es existencial. Sospecho que muchos dueños de negocios podrían darse cuenta, si se les provoca, que en realidad han desarrollado trabajos secundarios más lucrativos de lo planeado originalmente.

Es realmente una buena noticia: ¿cuál es el activo que creó o el modelo de negocio que se le ocurrió que realmente supera lo que incluso consiguió en el negocio?

Si responde eso, puede encontrar algún activo valioso que ni siquiera sabía que tenía.

Como recordatorio, el eBook es gratis Flying Business Class: 12 reglas para ejecutivos de aerolíneas estadounidenses.

, which you can download here. n In short, you'd like to think you understand what business you're in, wouldn't you? Well, developments over the last 12 months have shown that American Airlines (and for that matter, United and some others), actually have a very lucrative business besides simply flying people from point A to point B. n It's something that outsiders might not have understood, and that until recently, the airlines were not eager to discuss in detail. n

40 years in the making

n I suppose the story begins in 1981, when American Airlines launched what became the second-ever frequent flyer program: AAdvantage. n The airline itself was more than 50 years old at that point, and you can thank the deregulation of the 1970s, and increased competition among airlines, for the program's development. AAdvantage has grown along with the opportunities in the ensuing decades. n Then, a few years ago, an analyst named Joseph DeNardi started trying to put a price tag on AAdvantage, along with all the other airlines' frequent flyer programs, arguing that they were so valuable that the airlines ought to consider them as separate entities. n In fact, DeNardi calculated that the airlines likely brought in billions in "marketing revenue" from selling frequent flyer points to banks, so those banks could use them to entice customers to use credit cards. n He calculated that American Airlines could have made $1.15 billion from these programs in the first half of 2018, leading the industry. United Airlines made $962 million in that same period, he surmised; Delta: $805 million. And so on, through the smaller airlines. n

Facing brutal truths

n This came up on earnings calls with airline executives at the time, including American Airlines CEO Doug Parker. Let's just say the airlines disagreed with the premise. n But then came the pandemic, and the global slowdown in air travel, the most challenging time in the industry in living memory, and an opportunity to face some brutal truths. n This week, we learned more about one of them, when American Airlines did in fact put an implicit price tag on AAdvantage: It announced plans to close $7.5 billion in financing, in the form of bonds and leveraged loans, backed by the loyalty program. n A few days later, there had been so much demand, apparently, that American Airlines revised its filing with the Securities and Exchange commission to reflect that it had increased the transaction to $10 billion. n Worth noting: n

First, the entire market capitalization of American Airlines as of Friday was less than $15 billion,
Second, American Airlines created a "newly formed Cayman Islands exempted company," AAdvantage Loyalty IP Ltd. as part of this deal, and
Third, American's AAdvantage Investor Presentation, which it had to file with the SEC, reveals that the airline did almost $6 billion in "pro forma cash sales" as a result of AAdvantage in 2019.

I say again: study the airlines

n I asked American Airlines for more context on all of this. They declined to share anything more, citing the fact that the deal hasn't actually closed yet, and noted that Parker will be presenting at the J.P. Morgan Industrials Conference on Monday. n Regardless, the point here isn't really to assess whether American has priced its loyalty program correctly aHeaven32er 40 years. Instead, as always, it's to discover the lessons for business leaders in all industries that you can find by studying the airlines. n Here, I think the lesson is existential. I suspect a lot of business owners might realize, if they were enticed to think deeply, that they've actually developed more lucrative sidelines than what they originally got into business to do. n It's good news, really: What's the asset you've created, or the business model you've come up with, that actually surpasses what you got into business with in the first place? n Answer that, and you might just find a valuable asset you didn't even realize you had. n As a reminder, the free ebook is Flying Business Class: 12 Rules for Leaders From the U.S. Airlines. 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