ROME — As the coronavirus pandemic spreads, Russia appears to be observing the adage that you should never let a good crisis go to waste.
Seeking to capitalize on the chaos and promote its own soft power, the Kremlin has taken Beijing’s lead and started love-bombing struggling nations with medical aid, and stepping up its efforts to broadcast propaganda and sow disinformation on state and social media.
In March, medical supplies airlifted to Italy were emblazoned with the logo “From Russia with Love.” Even more surreal was Russia’s deployment of 122 experts in bacterial warfare, including medical teams, to Italy.
Scenes of the convoy of 22 military trucks, rolling across Italy like an occupying power, constituted a propaganda coup for Moscow, which used the images to hammer home the idea that NATO and the European Union have abandoned Italy in its hour of need. “Russian convoy travelled on NATO roads,” state-controlled Rossiya 1 TV channel crowed.
A video of an Italian man taking down an EU flag and replacing it with a Russian tricolor and a sign saying “Thank you Putin” has played frequently on Russian TV — no matter that Italian media later reported people had of received payments of €200 for filming messages of gratitude.
“In terms of soft power, sending help creates a hierarchy. The country that accepts aid shows that it is weaker and cannot cope” — Raffaele Marchetti, Luiss University in Rome
Outside Italy, Russia has also dispatched help to hard-hit countries within its sphere of influence, such as Serbia and Belarus, and sold much-needed medical supplies to the U.S., welcomed by President Donald Trump.
The tactic is familiar, and fits into a broader effort to undermine trust in the Western liberal order. But the PR moves also serve another, perhaps more important, purpose: At home, the tactic diverts attention from an explosion of cases within Russia’s own borders and boosts domestic perceptions of President Vladimir Putin’s statesmanship on the international stage.
By sending aid to another country, Russia is seeking to redraw global hierarchies, said Raffaele Marchetti, a professor of international relations at Luiss University in Rome.
“In terms of soft power, sending help creates a hierarchy. The country that accepts aid shows that it is weaker and cannot cope.”
* * *
There are conflicting narratives about how Moscow’s humanitarian mission came about. The 5Star Movement, one of Italy’s ruling coalition partners, maintains a friendly stance toward Russia, which it considers to be aligned with its own anti-establishment stance and rejection of the powerful interests represented by the EU and the U.S. The party has tried to take the credit for the influx of Russian aid, citing a long friendship.
Bizarrely, the far-right Alternative for Germany party has also claimed to have played a role in brokering the agreement, saying it was approached by an MP from the pro-Kremlin, right-wing League party, Paolo Grimoldi.
Friendship with the Kremlin is a sensitive issue in Italy, where the far-right League party headed by Matteo Salvini is currently under investigation for allegedly accepting party funding from Russia.
The left-wing Radical Party has warned Italy is “at risk of being exploited by authoritarian regimes and claimed the aid could be more of “a Trojan horse than a gift horse.” A petition on change.org demanding to know how the deal was brokered attracted 15,000 signatures earlier this month.
Europe, too, is paying attention.
NATO is “very, very focused on these transactions,” General Tod Wolters, NATO commander in Europe, told journalists in a briefing recently.
“I pay very close attention to Russian malign influence. It is a concern …We remain very, very vigilant in NATO with respect to those transactions, and we continue to monitor to the highest degree.”
Russian President Vladimir Putin televised address on April 2 | Anatoly Maltsev/EFE via EPA
The actual value of the Russian aid is questionable. The Italian military has its own highly competent decontamination capabilities. Russia donated just 300,000 masks, compared with 2 million each from France and Germany, and the field hospital in Bergamo where the Russian medical teams are working is 80 percent empty.
Russia is forfeiting next-to-nothing, said a retired senior European diplomat, who was stationed at NATO. “Russian corona victims, who as a result will be deprived of treatment, will never know why, and it plays to the understandable Italian sense that they are not seeing much solidarity from their European allies or the U.S.”
Italian media reports, citing military sources, have suggested the real purpose of the mission is intelligence-gathering, but the only information Russia has been likely able to extract is medical information on best practices, according to Marchetti, the Luiss University professor.
“It is an opportunity to train its doctors for the epidemic in Russia,” he said. The likelihood of Russian personnel gaining any military intelligence is remote, “but they have other channels for that.”
Others have suggested that Putin has targeted Italy because the country is seen as the weakest link toward relaxing sanctions imposed on Russia in 2014 after the annexation of Crimea. But Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte has made it clear that this wasn’t part of the aid deal.
“Russia is likely to gain little from its gesture of goodwill long term,” said the retired diplomat. “There may be some Italians who are taken in, but a little gesture like this doesn’t weigh much against all the evidence of the nature of Russia under Putin. It is far too soon to be worrying about an Italian lurch to the east.”
* * *
Beyond the military convoys, the Kremlin has also turned to the tried-and-true tactic of sowing confusion online. The result, with Kremlin-funded websites spreading disinformation on the virus, has served to weaken public trust in Western governments and make their response to the virus less effective.
The EU and the U.S. State Department, if not the White House, have both hit out against the online campaigns, which are “recklessly endangering global health,” according to Lea Gabrielle, special envoy at the U.S. State department’s Global Engagement Center, because they provoke individuals to act in ways that contradict good advice that they are being given by governments and health agencies.
Europeans, too, have warned of the danger of Russian online campaigns related to the virus. “Disinformation is playing with people’s lives. Disinformation can kill,” the EU’s top diplomat, Josep Borrell, said at a press conference last month.
The Kremlin has belatedly corrected some false information and tried to smooth over feelings of chaos and confusion.
According to the European External Action Service, the EU’s foreign policy arm, there were more than 100 cases of pro-Kremlin disinformation about the coronavirus between January and March. In a new report, out on Tuesday, its Stratcom division said Russian “official sources and state-controlled media and social media channels have been running a coordinated campaign” promoting false health information that “can have (a) direct impact on public health and security.”
State-controlled media Russia Today and Sputnik have broadcast that hand-washing was ineffective against coronavirus. Some state-funded sites have also promoted bogus cures such as saline, Vitamin C and Zinc. One Russian news agency falsely reported that the U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson was on a ventilator. Disinformation about the coronavirus has already led to riots in Ukraine and arson attacks on 5G towers in the U.K.
Russian foreign affairs spokesperson Maria Zakharova claimed Russia was “bewildered” by accusations it was misleading the public, telling a recent virtual press conference that Western countries are “cynically using the coronavirus to attack Russia.”
But while the State Department and EU hold the Kremlin responsible for a concerted disinformation campaign, “the reality is more complex,” said Natalia Krapiva, of digital rights watchdog Access Now. “There are the state-run channels and sites but also trolls and ordinary citizens who may have been influenced by disinformation. The ecosystem does not speak with one voice.”
A man wearing a face mask sits in the Moscow metro | Sergei Ilnitsky/EFE via EPA
In the long run, these efforts could also backfire, as the same disinformation that usually helps boost support for Kremlin policies causes confusion at home and potentially contributes to worsening the outbreak in Russia.
A majority of Russian disinformation targets a domestic audience, according to Krapiva, and in the run-up to a public vote on constitutional changes that would allow Putin to remain in power for another two terms, Russian sites had claimed the virus was a hoax and not affecting Russia.
“The government wanted to make sure that there was public support for the vote and that people were not distracted or scared,” said Krapiva.
The vote has since been postponed, in light of the uptick in cases in Russia. But the result is that people are very confused, especially at regional level, about the severity of the health crisis. “Now we are suffering from our own disinformation. They don’t trust the government. People believe it is a hoax.”
The Kremlin has belatedly corrected some false information and tried to smooth over feelings of chaos and confusion. But as the virus takes hold, Russia risks becoming a victim of its own efforts to mislead, said Krapiva. “It is the Russian people that will suffer the most.”