Un economista de Stanford que estudia el trabajo remoto dice que la mitad de todos los trabajadores harán este gran cambio en 2022

Los economistas que estudiaban el teletrabajo y la productividad solían tener un gran problema: encontrar grupos de trabajadores para estudiar.

Para hacerlo bien, tenía que identificar a las personas que hacían exactamente el mismo trabajo y dividirlas en dos cohortes, con un grupo trabajando desde casa y el otro en la oficina.

UNA El profesor de economía de la Universidad de Stanford, Nicholas Bloom, y el estudiante de doctorado James Liang, quien fue director ejecutivo y cofundador de la agencia de viajes más grande de China, han encontrado una solución. Usaron liangs Personal de investigación: estudie a 250 trabajadores de centros de llamadas que trabajaron desde casa y 250 que trabajaron en una oficina.

Escribí sobre su estudio en 2017. En resumen, las personas que trabajan desde casa han sido más productivas que las personas en la oficina. Pero al final del estudio, la mitad de la cohorte basada en el hogar decidió perder la oficina y regresó al menos a tiempo parcial.

Gracias a la pandemia, ya no es difícil encontrar temas para un curso de “trabajo desde casa”. Y Bloom continuó su investigación.

De hecho, recientemente escribió que ahora podemos predecir exactamente cómo se desarrollarán en 2022 los principales cambios inducidos por la pandemia en el lugar de trabajo que hemos visto en los últimos dos años. Él dice que los empleados se dividen en tres grupos diferentes:

1. Empleados que no pueden trabajar desde casa (50 por ciento).

Primero, Bloom dice que aproximadamente el 50 por ciento de todos los empleados simplemente no podrán trabajar desde casa. Tienes que venir a una oficina u otro lugar de trabajo.

Si dirige un negocio que incluye comercio minorista, fabricación o atención médica, o la mayoría de las empresas de servicios, es probable que sus empleados entren en esta categoría.

Para ser justos, estos son en su mayor parte los trabajadores peor pagados, como escribió Bloom en barones, resume sus proyecciones. Además, están “a menudo enojados y molestos” porque tuvieron que presentarse una y otra vez en persona durante la pandemia, mientras que otros se saltearon sus viajes al trabajo y redujeron su ropa de trabajo a una sola “camisa de zoom”.

La mayoría de los empleadores entienden que tienen que pagarles más a estos empleados y tal vez ofrecer cierta flexibilidad creativa para compensar la incapacidad de trabajar de forma remota. Como ejemplo, puede cambiar a los empleados (si lo desean) de un horario de trabajo de 8 horas cinco días a la semana a uno de 10 horas, cuatro días a la semana.

2. Empleados que pueden trabajar a distancia por tiempo indefinido (10 por ciento).

La segunda categoría, que Bloom estima que representa alrededor del 10 por ciento de la fuerza laboral, son aquellos que pueden trabajar de forma remota para siempre. Predice que estos serán trabajadores que comparten tres cualidades:

  • Primero, están altamente calificados y trabajan en funciones de servicio. Cita como ejemplos el soporte de TI, las finanzas, la nómina y la edición.
  • En segundo lugar, no vieron ninguna reducción real en la productividad mientras trabajaban desde casa; de hecho, podrían haberse vuelto más productivos.
  • Al fin y al cabo, no suelen ser los trabajadores los que gestionan o lideran grandes equipos.

Cabe destacar: Los empleados del estudio que Bloom y Liang realizaron con la empresa de Liang hace unos años entran en esta categoría.

3. Empleados que trabajarán en un modelo híbrido: algunos trabajan de forma remota, otros en la oficina (40 por ciento).

Finalmente, Bloom dice que el 40 por ciento restante de los trabajadores caerá en una categoría híbrida: aquellos trabajadores que pueden hacer una parte importante de su trabajo de forma remota pero que aún necesitan permanecer en el cargo durante una parte estructurada, confiable y significativa de su tiempo.

Bloom estima que trabajan quizás tres días a la semana promedio en la oficina y dos de forma remota o en casa. Las características comunes de estos empleados incluyen:

  • Especialistas y directivos con títulos y certificados universitarios.
  • Empleados que o tienen que liderar equipos o forman parte de equipos y “que necesitan contacto personal para ser productivos”, como él dice.
  • Pero también empleados que han llegado a apreciar la ventaja de poder trabajar desde casa durante al menos una parte sustancial de la semana, lo que significa que pueden viajar menos y disfrutar de un “tiempo de tranquilidad”.

En resumen, disfrutan de esta libertad y es probable que la reivindiquen, o al menos busquen los trabajos que les ofrecen.

¿Qué otros cambios?

Ahora, con aproximadamente el 50 por ciento de la fuerza laboral de EE. UU. trabajando desde casa o en un modelo híbrido a largo plazo, puede imaginar el impacto que podría tener el segundo y tercer orden en muchos de nuestros empleados en la sociedad.

Por un lado, como señala Bloom, ya estamos viendo un “efecto dona” en el sector inmobiliario, con trabajadores híbridos que abandonan los centros de las ciudades y los suburbios cercanos para trasladarse a las áreas circundantes.

Está dispuesto a hacer un viaje más largo (solo dos o tres días a la semana) si eso significa, por ejemplo, una casa más grande y un jardín más grande.

Los trabajadores remotos reales pueden trasladarse a cualquier lugar que deseen. Ya estamos viendo más estados rurales como Vermont, Virginia y Oklahoma que brindan incentivos financieros a los trabajadores remotos que están considerando mudarse allí (y traer sus trabajos, poder adquisitivo y dólares de impuestos).

Maldita sea, incluso en el extranjero han renunciado al requisito de visado para los teletrabajadores. ¿Te gustaría vivir en Barbados, Bermudas o Costa Rica, por ejemplo? Todos tienen programas.

Trabajar desde casa seguirá siendo un gran negocio en sí mismo: la tecnología, la cultura y las mejores prácticas serán grandes oportunidades de crecimiento.

En cuanto a las oficinas en sí, lamento decir que las oficinas abiertas ahora son la verdadera ola del futuro. Simplemente es mucho más difícil justificar el espacio de oficina privado para personas que solo lo usan en un 50 por ciento.

Además, cuando se trata de tener personas en la oficina para mejorar la comunicación y el trabajo en equipo, creo que se habla mucho sobre el hecho de que, literalmente, no hay paredes entre ellos.

Las opiniones expresadas aquí por los columnistas de Heaven32 son propias, no de Heaven32.

n I wrote about their study back in 2017. In short, the work-from-home employees were more productive than the in-office ones. But at the end of the study, half of the work-from-home cohort decided that they missed the office, and came back at least part-time. n Thanks to the pandemic, it's no longer hard to find subjects for these kinds of "work from home" studies. And Bloom has kept up his research. n In fact, he wrote recently that we can now predict exactly how the big, pandemic-induced workplace changes we've seen over the last two years will settle during 2022. He says employees will be divided into three distinct groups: n

1. Employees who can't work from home (50 percent).

n First, Bloom says about 50 percent of all employees simply won't be able to work from home. They'll have to come to an office or other workplace. n If you're running a business that involves retail, or manufacturing, or healthcare -- or most service businesses -- chances are that your employees will fall into this category. n Frankly, these are largely the lowest-paid workers, as Bloom wrote in Baron's, summarizing his projections. Moreover, they're "oHeaven32en angry and upset" that they've had to keep showing up in-person, during the pandemic, while others skipped their commutes and pared their work wardrobes down to a single "Zoom shirt." n Most employers realize they'll have to pay these employees more and perhaps offer some creative flexibility to make up for the lack of ability to work remotely. As an example, maybe you can move employees (if they want) from an eight-hour, five-day-a-week work schedule to a 10-hour, four-day workweek. n

2. Employees who can work remotely, indefinitely (10 percent).

n The second category, which Bloom estimates works out to about 10 percent of workers, are those who can work remotely for good. He predicts that these will be workers who share three characteristics: n
    t
  • First, they're highly skilled and working in service roles. The examples he gives include  IT support, finance, payroll, and editing.
  • t
  • Second, they haven't seen any real reduction in productivity while working from home; in fact, they may have become more productive.
  • t
  • Finally, for the most part, they're not the workers who have to manage or lead big teams. 
n Worth noting: the employees in the study that Bloom and Liang did a few years ago involving Liang's company would fall into this category.  n

3. Employees who will work under a hybrid model: some remote work, some in-office (40 percent).

n Finally, Bloom says that the remaining 40 percent of workers will fall into a hybrid category: These workers who can do a significant amount of their work remotely, but will still need to be in office for some structured, reliable, and significant part of their time. n Bloom pegs them as working perhaps three days out of the average week in the office, and two remotely or at home. These employees' shared characteristics include: n
    t
  • Professionals and executives who have university degrees and credentials.
  • t
  • Workers who either have to lead teams or who are part of teams, and "who need face-to-face contact to be productive," as he puts it.
  • t
  • But also, workers who have come to value the benefit of having at least some significant chunk of their week to work from home, thus enjoying fewer commutes and "quiet time." 
n In short, they enjoy this freedom and are likely to demand it or at least seek out jobs that offer it. n

What other changes?

n Now, if roughly 50 percent of the U.S. workforce is either going to work from home or work in a hybrid model for the long-term, you can begin to imagine the second-and third-order effects this could have on a lot of our society. n For one thing, as Bloom points out, we're already seeing a "donut effect" in real estate in which hybrid workers are leaving city centers and close-in suburbs for the more exurban areas around them.  n They're willing to endure a longer commute (it's only two or three days a week), if it means a bigger house and yard, for example. n True remote workers, for that matter, can relocate anywhere they want. Already, we're seeing more rural states like Vermont, Virginia, and Oklahoma offering financial incentives to remote workers who will consider moving there (and bringing their jobs, spending power, and tax dollars). n Heck, even foreign countries have been waiving visa requirements for remote workers. Want to live in Barbados, Bermuda, or Costa Rica, for example? They all have programs. n Working from home is going to continue to be a big business in and of itself: technology, culture, and best practices will be big opportunities for growth.  n As for offices themselves, well, I'm sorry to say that open offices are now the true wave of the future. It's simply a lot harder to justify private office spaces for people who will only use them 50 percent of the time. n Plus, if the whole point of having people in the office is to improve communication and teamwork, I think hear a lot of talk about not letting there literally be walls between them. 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