After trying to decisively break more than $ 10,000 a second time in a week, Bitcoin was rejected, dropping as low as $ 9,200 for the umpteenth time in a few days.
The lukewarm action of the BTC price has made some investors cautious about the possibility of yet another disadvantage for the flagship cryptocurrency, citing the loss of key support at $ 9,500.
An investor promoting these forecasts is the same person who, in the middle of last year, predicted a decline to $ 6,400 while assets recovered well above $ 10,000. The decline took place almost to the dollar, with Bitcoin reaching a level very close to $ 6,400 about six months after its prediction.
Bitcoin could fall to $ 6,000, analyst fears
Supporting his prediction, the The merchant recently shared the chart below. This shows that Bitcoin's price action over the past week closely resembles the price action at the high of $ 10,500 in February of this year.
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The similarities indicate that if Bitcoin is trading the way it did during the previous peak, it will drop to $ 6,000 in early June, just three weeks ago.
Bitcoin price chart from "Dave the Wave" (@davthewave on Twitter), a major cryptocurrency trader who has made a few macro calls. He estimates that BTC will retest $ 6,400 in the coming weeks.
As previously reported in this media, the trader claimed in a separate analysis that Bitcoin is also bearish because the moving average convergence divergence (MACD), a key trend / momentum indicator, has crossed negatively.
Historical MACD red crosses preceded previous Bitcoin locks. For example, the indicator turned red just weeks before the BTC fell from $ 9,000 to $ 3,700 in a week and also near the peak of the 2019 bull run at $ 14,000.
Sales pressure could ease: data
If there is a downside risk, the data indicates that the number of BTCs held on the stock market is decreasing at a rapid rate. This should reduce the possibility of Bitcoin's strong sell in the medium term.
As reported by NewsBTC, prominent Bitcoin developer and entrepreneur Jameson Lopp recently shared this by Coin Metrics data, the amount of BTC held by BitMEX and Bitfinex, the main futures market and the main cash market, respectively, "reached new lows after the March 12 collapse".
The amount of BTC held by BitMEX and Bitfinex reached new lows after the March 12 crash. Bitfinex now has 93.8K BTC, down from 193.9k on March 13. BitMEX's BTC supply has now dropped to 216.0 K BTC, from a peak of 315.7 K on March 13. H / T @coinmetrics pic.twitter.com/gesZ3QahcK
– Jameson Lopp (@lopp) May 12, 2020
Part metricThe chart below indicates that Bitfinex now has 93,800 BTC, not a small sum, but almost exactly 100,000 coins less than as of March 13. Likewise, BitMEX supply fell to 216,000 BTC after peaking at 315,000 coins in March, another drop of almost exactly 100,000 coins.
The withdrawn coins are worth more than $ 1.7 billion.