More than 3.1 million workers have claimed unemployment benefits in the past week, according to data released Thursday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This includes 1.9 million people who have applied for regular state unemployment insurance, plus 1.2 million people who have applied for assistance in the event of an unemployment pandemic or PUA. This is a new federal program for people who are unemployed but not eligible for traditional unemployment insurance, including the self-employed.
“Currently, 15 states and the District of Columbia do not yet report PUA data. This means that PUA demands are still underestimated, “said Heidi Shierholz, senior economist and policy director at the Institute for Economic Policy, a group of experts based in Washington, DC” This is the 10th week consecutive that first jobless claims are more than three times the worst week of the Great Recession. “
“The unemployment situation will get worse before it gets better, and unemployment benefit claims will keep coming,” said Shierholz, “and we must never forget that the global numbers hide the fact that recessions do not affect not different racial and gender groups. ” . similarly, due to factors such as occupational segregation, discrimination and other disparities in the labor market.
“Policy makers must do more,” he said. “For example, prolonged depression is virtually guaranteed without significant federal assistance to state and local governments. We also need to provide more funds to public unemployment insurance agencies to hire staff to speed up processing and make improvements to websites and other administrative infrastructure. “
Others have dismissed fears of a great depression. Cullen Roche, author of the “Pragmatic Capitalism blog”, said it was “practically impossible” to make such a prediction. “The American economy is very different from what it used to be,” he wrote. “In 1929, the economy was essentially a manufacturing and agricultural economy, with more than 40% of the GDP coming from these two sectors. In the post-war period, it became much more diversified. Manufacturing industry and agriculture represent only 10% of GDP, no sector representing more than 10%. “
The number of confirmed COVID-19 cases and the number of deaths continue to increase. The coronavirus has infected at least 216,768 people in the United States. United States On Thursday afternoon, it killed at least 100,871 people, with 29,537 deaths occurring in New York State alone, according to the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. Globally, 5,925,063 confirmed virus cases and 357,533 deaths have been reported.
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Since the start of the coronavirus pandemic and blockages in mid-March, About 48 million people have applied for unemployment benefits without adjustment. Initial requests have steadily declined since reaching a record 6.9 million in the week ending March 28. However, Shierholz takes a more cautious approach, estimating that around 34.2 million workers are now receiving unemployment benefits or have recently applied and are awaiting approval. .
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“One of the most effective parts of the CARES law is expected to be extended long after its expiration in late July.”
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Calculating this number is complicated. “In total, 19.1 million workers had passed at least the first regular processing cycle of the state intervention by May 16, and 4.1 million had filed additional initial UI applications, but no ‘had not yet successfully completed the first course of treatment’, ‘he said,’ and 7.8 million workers had passed at least the first course of treatment for PUAs before May 9, and 3.3 million had filed initial PUA requests in addition, but have not yet successfully completed the first treatment cycle. “
Even using this more conservative estimate of the number of unemployed people, about two-thirds of people on traditional unemployment insurance and one-third of PUAs are now unemployed, said Shierholz. Together, this represents more than one in five people in the US workforce, he said. Seasonal adjustments to unemployment insurance claim data make no sense for such an unprecedented period, he said, adding that PUA claims are only available on an unadjusted basis.
The $ 2,000 billion CARES Act stimulus package passed by the Senate last month will help the United States. United States Through the COVID-19 pandemic, of which New York City remains the epicenter, and created a $ 250 billion expansion of unemployment insurance. It will pay workers $ 600 a week in addition to the amount they receive on their state unemployment claim for up to four months, in accordance with the provisions of the Coronavirus Economic Relief and Relief Act. (CARES).
“One of the most effective elements of the CARES law is expected to extend well beyond its expiration in late July, until unemployment drops rapidly and reaches a manageable level,” added Shierholz. If the additional $ 600 expires, millions of Americans will have less money to spend in stores, which could lead to more unemployment, he added.
Cullen Roche, meanwhile, said it was a self-imposed and vital recession, not an uncontrollable recession: “The political response is completely different. In 1929 the government responded in all the wrong ways. He adjusted monetary policy, he tightened trade, he adjusted fiscal policy. This exacerbated all the problems that led to depression. “Others say the $ 600 discourages low-paid people from returning to work. If the United States Senate and President Trump pass the $ 3 trillion HEROES law, which would extend it until January 2021.