Written by Patrick Armstrong via The Strategic Culture Foundation,
A black swan is the lingo of an unexpected event with great consequences. 2020 has brought us two so far: the COVID-19 pandemic and the collapse in oil prices.
Each will have powerful consequences for Imperium Americanum. And there is a nest of maturing black chicks.
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COVID-19 (female
A new infectious disease was seen in China at the end of last year, identified as a coronavirus in January, and a pandemic was declared in March. Since then, economic and social life has stopped in the West, with governments persuaded to declare closings. The restrictions were generalized in March and April and are still in effect; while some jurisdictions diminish them, others speak of more months. The purpose of this essay is not to ask whether these measures were justified or effective, but only to state that they have taken place and that the world economy will have weakened for two or three months, see more. A large black swan indeed.
The fuller effects will not be known for some time, but one result is no doubt that the Western rejection of effectiveness has dealt a major, possibly fatal blow. Only six months before, a The survey confidently indicated that the West, led by the United States. USA and Britain better deal with pandemic
. Less: "We are living in a state of failure: the coronavirus has not destroyed America. Revealed what was already broken";"The death of American competition";"The coronavirus is the worst intelligence failure in the history of the United States. USA";"America's world reputation USA It hits the bottom of Trump's coronavirus response";""The world has loved, hated and envied the United States. Now, for the first time, we are sorry."; "Coronavirus: EU could fail due to epidemic, warns Giuseppe Conte of Italy";"The EU has ruined its response to the coronavirus and may never fully recover."China cannot contain its laughter."Chinese state media calls the United States a "primitive society", "democracy is dying" amid the coronavirus" Many American plays, reflecting the abysmal divide in American politics, write as if it were all Trump's fault. But it was not Trump who did not replace the PPE stocks used eleven years ago
Washington deflects its failure by accusing China. But here he also lost his competence: he is here The United States Secretary of State, Pompeo, said at the same time that he was created by man and that he was not.:
POMPEO: Look, the best experts so far seem to think this is a human creation. I have no reason not to believe it yet.
RADDATZ: Your – your DNI office says that consensus, scientific consensus was neither created by humans nor genetically modified.
POMPEO: That's right. I, I, I agree with that. Yeah I saw your analyzes. I have seen the summary that you have seen that has been made public. I have no reason to doubt that this is correct at this time.
Not to mention Fauci's money on Wuhan laboratory. China may not even be the place of origin: France has just discovered a December case and there may be a EE cases. USA From November. Shortness of breath reported Assessment of five eyes blaming China collapses quickly: "mainly based on reporting and did not contain intelligence gathering material"One of the eyes says. Washington may whip its minions in a trunk, but the rest of the world will despise it as a regrettable attempt at distraction. There will be a greater rejection of the assumption of competence and veracity of the West. And, in the West itself, more will doubt the words of "experts" (especially those of imperial college And that’s teachers), "Authorities and" reliable media sources ".
Most of the West is still closed, but China is opening up. Observers know that China is becoming the world's largest economy: the The World Bank had already granted it this title in terms of PPP in 2013 – and COVID-19 will surely speed up the process by initiating the economic slowdown. With cheap energy too.
"Sweet power"It is a useful term that describes the attractiveness of a given culture for others. For many years it was a powerful arrow in the quiver of America. – I often think of the character played by Gregory Peck in Roman holidays For example: open, honest, honorable and modern, but happy to be an example and never take advantage of it. Propaganda, no doubt, but effective propaganda. COVID-19 shows something else: in simple terms China has provided assistance to many countries and the "US accused of "modern hacking" after hijacking masks destined for EuropePiffle like "TThe United States and President Trump lead the global effort to combat this pandemic"OR"United States Remains World Leader in Humanitarian Goodness"Make it more obvious. From the EU, we get word salads: reaffirm / recognize / support / remember. And only three months ago, the "West wins"He became a clown.
Among the downstream effects of the COVID-19 black swan, we can see at least three:
- significant and possibly fatal damage to the assumption of American and Western competition;
- widening of the economic gap with China;
- A new shift in the global balance of soft power.
The detour to "blame China" (without forgetting the rest of the current enemy package – Russia and Iran) is childish and will gain disgust.
None of these changes benefit Imperium Americanum.
Oil
In March, Riyadh, on behalf of OPEC, proposed to Moscow to cut oil production to keep prices high. Moscow refused and Riyadh started to pump. COVID-19 closures have collapsed demand. A month later West Texas futures were negative and the price of a barrel of oil fell below $ 20.
Overall, it is estimated that the US oil shale oil industry. USAabout 60% of American production USA) you need a price of about $ 60 be profitable, Saudi Arabia, Despite low pumping costs, they waste a lot what do you need about $ 80; Russia on the other hand it's profitable at $ 45 and a half a trillion dollars in your FOREX chat. So, if Riyadh has started a price war, it is not in a position of strength; Moscow, on the other hand, some say: can survive $ 25 a barrel for ten years. As the Chinese industry starts working again, it starts buying oil. but most of Russia.
The end result of this price competition in a collapse in demand is unknown, but the US shale industry is unlikely. USA To be successful. And, because much of Washington's behavior is based on confidence that it is independent of petroleumAmerica will not emerge stronger from it.
Two black swans risk leaving Imperium Americanum weaker and less influential. And, it must be said, happier. But there is more.
And some black chicks
Some may remember the thrill of television commentators on cruise missiles during the 1990 Gulf War. And a weapon that could be launched thousands of miles away and hit a particular level of the building it was aimed at. was quite surprising. It was the first use in large-scale public combat of very long range precision weapons and for many years, cruise missiles have been the hallmark of American attacks and virtually a monopoly. Until 2015, when Russia attacked targets in Syria since otherwise insignificant small boat in the Caspian Sea. Washington was so amazed by this that its first reaction was poop poop precision. But they were real; many Kalibres have been launched from different platforms, including submerged submarines. So now there were two confirmed club members who could, under real conditions, strike a target with great precision from a great distance.
In its response to the murder of Soleimani, Iran showed that it was also a member of the club. If it seems that some of their missiles got lost, most hitting exactly what they were aiming for. (U.S. military opponents also noted: again – the fact that it does not have effective air defenses). And Washington's usual reaction: minimize at the start; then we learn more than a hundred brain injuries. A feat for a country that has been subject to sanctions for decades. And Iran has just joined another little club: the countries that can launch a satellite on its own (again derogatory dismissal from the United States: "webcam falling into space").
The Trump administration is very hostile to Iran, but no more so than most American administrations. USA Since the Shah's departure, he himself has returned to power for a coup d 'état between the United States and the United Kingdom. The hottest moment in this undeclared war was probably 1988but there have been a lot of other crises and we just had another threat from Washington. Tehran knows it is on Washington's hit list and has been preparing for decades. Missiles will be one of its main defenses. Washington would do well to reflect on Iran’s accession, surprisingly, to these two elite clubs before it threatens any more. Small chicks become large swans.
Another black cygnet is the Iraqi Parliament's request for US forces to leave the country. Washington is consolidate his troops but they will be besieged prisoners if the country stands up against them. Sooner or later this will be the case when the new Prime Minister form your government. Two consequences of the neoconservative-dominated "New American Century" in the Middle East have been the growth of Iran's influence and the demonstration that the United States military. USA This is not the omnipotent force that I thought. When efforts to bring him out begin, Washington will have three options: to bend over and wait for him to disappear, to considerably strengthen his troops for a whole new war, to withdraw to Vietnam. This cygnet is growing.
* * *
A pandemic, the collapse of the price of oil, a target country showing that it has more capacity than previously thought, has threatened the expulsion from Iraq. The surprises revealed long-term weaknesses.
It's always the unexpected things that try things for destruction.
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