The CBoT soybean futures have peaked for several years this week after export sales data, The climatic problems that threaten production and technical purchases.
Reuters, citing a report from the US Department of Agriculture, said soybean export sales “remain strong” as Mexico and China continue to make significant purchases.
The USDA, in a daily export sales ad, said private importers had sold 374,000 tonnes of oilseeds to China, 152,404 tonnes to Mexico and 132,000 tonnes to undisclosed dest inations. The combined deals were reached for the USDA’s biggest daily soybean export sales announcement since September 8, according to agency data.
The daily sales announcement came as the USDA also released export data showing net sales of 2.591 million tonnes last week, the fifth week in a row that sales have exceeded 2 million tonnes. More than 1.5 million tonnes of last week’s sales went to China. – Reuters
Traders noted that the surge in soybean exports to the United States is due to dry weather conditions in Brazil, the world’s largest soybean exporter and largest supplier to China, forcing plantings to be delayed. This delay is likely to increase demand for US beans in 1Q21, when Brazilian bean shipments generally begin to crowd out US exports.
But given that U.S. exporters only reserve 21.5 million tonnes of soybeans for China in the first nine months of 2020, around 2 million tonnes less than in the same period of 2017, the overall likelihood that Beijing will honor your agricultural commitment under phase 1. The agreement has remained weak.
As of August, China was importing just $ 10.71 billion in U.S. agricultural products, meaning it must purchase an additional $ 25.89 billion in U.S. agricultural products by the end of 2020 to comply with the agreement.
A summary of China’s monthly purchases (in August) of US products covered by the trade agreement, taken from Chinese customs data (Chinese imports) and US Census Bureau data (US exports). .), Presented by Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE), shows that China is far behind in purchasing not only American agricultural products, but also almost all products covered by the trade agreement.
The rise in soybean prices and the surge in exports are excellent, although “the biggest trade deal ever reached by President Trump lacks a functioning compliance mechanism, which leaves one wondering if the whole trade deal was just for the show before the presidential election.