Could Biden’s climate plan close the fossil fuel production gap?

Stop me if you’ve heard this before: the world is on track to exceed the climate targets set out in the Paris Agreement. Despite record drop in demand for fossil fuels amid pandemic, fossil fuel companies still plan to produce more oil, gas and coal over the next decade, and governments help and encourage them.

This creates a so-called “production gap”“-how much fossil fuel companies plan to produce compared to how much we need to reduce fossil fuel production to meet the objectives of the Paris Agreement–which is told in a new report of the United Nations Environment Program. While the report shows we are in trouble, it contains a key message about how governments can escape ruin. The authors borrow a phrase you may have heard if you’ve followed US policy over the past year: “Build Back Better.” The idea that President-elect Joe Biden’s climate plan on its own will close the fossil fuel production gap is pure fantasy

, but his next presidency it could be a start for America and the world.

This is the second annual report on the output gap. Last year contained a message just as hard

Even as the specter of the covid-19 pandemic looms on the horizon. While the world is radically different today, with millions of people falling ill or dead, the economy stagnating and demand for fossil fuels low, there is also a real risk of going back to where it is today. The report shows that production is expected to decrease by 6% per year until 2030. However, countries’ production plans are expected to increase oil, gas and coal extraction by 2% per year during this period. This will create a the production gap that will see the world exceed the Paris Agreement target of 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) by 50% and the more ambitious but crucial target of 1.5 degrees Celsius (2, 7 degrees Fahrenheit) by 120%. The report does not include Brazil, Mexico and a number of other countries that plan to increase fossil fuel production, indicating the gap could be even larger.

“The impact of pandemic-induced demand and lower oil prices this year have once again demonstrated the vulnerability of many regions and communities dependent on fossil fuels,” Ivetta Gerasimchuk, lead author of the report and researcher at L ‘International Institute for Sustainable Development said in a statement. “The only way out of this trap is to diversify these economies beyond fossil fuels. Sadly, in 2020 we saw many governments double their consumption of fossil fuels and further strengthen these vulnerabilities.

No country can close the gap on its own; fossil fuels must be reduced everywhere. But the new Biden administration has a chance to change course in the United States and abroad. The report contains six recommendations for all countries to close the gap under Biden’s slogan of rebuilding better, although the report does not mention him or his new administration by name.

Recommendations include ensuring new recovery efforts are green and avoiding “increased carbon lock-in ”, support for fossil fuel communities, more transparency in production, reduced government incentives for fossil fuels while increasing restrictions on production and processing a complete plan. Biden’s climate plan includes many of these elements. He called for an end to fossil fuel subsidies and a new extraction on public lands. On the stimulus front, your transition site

includes calls for an economical recovery by building “modern infrastructure and a clean and equitable energy future”, and its climate plan includes a commitment to invest 40% of a proposed $ 2 trillion infrastructure and a climate plan in “disadvantaged communities”, as well that helps coal communities. A lot of From the Trump administration Setbacks intended to increase oil and gas production will also be reversed under Biden.

But the administration will also need to develop a plan to phase out oil and gas production everywhere, including leases already in place on public lands, as well as fracking, a process Biden said he would ban. not entirely. Restoring the Obama era the rules will not suffice either. Biden has to go In addition, the establishment of stricter standards for the contamination of Energy installations, exhaust pipes, and even agricultural fields. And while coal towns have suffered for decades, oil and gas towns are in the beginning of this cycle of decline. A just transition plan must include places and workers who depend on all forms of fossil fuels.

Biden also said he would join the Paris Agreement and go further in his international ambitions. Be an active participant rather than a climate dropout this is perhaps the most important way for management to help close the gap. The report notes that the most effective way to ensure a smooth transition is if it is “collectively led by countries, as they send directional signals that energy producers, consumers and investors follow.”

The United States is one of the largest producers of fossil fuels in the world, and as the largest historical polluter, it must do its part. But in approaching the weather crisis it could end up being a golden opportunity to get involved again, as the world can act immediately and the benefits accrue to all countries. There are obstacles, such as potential of a Republican-controlled Senate

and self-owners, how to advisers who favored the disastrous approach to energy that includes all of the above Yes nominees funded by fossil fuels. But as the report shows, the planet doesn’t really care about that. You worry about the reduction of harsh cold emissions, and the time of playing with the edges is over (cough, cough, New Green Agreement).

“Political solutions are available,” the report notes. “What is needed is political will and international cooperation to make this a reality.”