Next week, investors will benefit from a big break from all of the terrible American economic news before Memorial Day holiday weekend, but not because things are getting better. They are not.
Last week, the news recorded a record 16.4% drop in retail sales, 2.6 million additional layoffs and a sharp drop in inflation. Lower inflation is generally a good thing, but not in the current environment where companies have to lower prices to stay alive and keep workers at work.
Lily:Unemployment claims up 2.6 million due to coronavirus closings
Economic data to be released next week is scarce. Under pressure: a few million additional jobless claims or layoffs, unthinkable just a few months ago, and more evidence that the housing market has been hit like any other significant part of the economy. American economy. United States
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The best we can hope for is that the economy has finally bottomed out. Some scattered reports suggest that this could be the case.
Small business and consumer surveys, for example, appear to level off in May. A $ 3 trillion avalanche of government aid has a lot to do with it. Washington is trying to keep businesses afloat and help tens of millions of suddenly unemployed workers get through the most difficult time in their lives.
Meanwhile, most of the US states. United States They have started to reopen their economies and to loosen the rules of stay in the homes and commercial blockages.
These are really temporary steps, and they are not enough to actually move the needle. It will take a lot more work for the economy to look something close to normal.
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A new job tracker from workforce management company Kronos illustrates the depths of the downside.
In fact, Kronos also manufactures digital clocks that workers use to register and leave work in some 30,000 companies in the United States. United States In areas such as manufacturing, retail and health care.
Since most American workers are always paid by the hour, companies must keep track. But they don't use those old paper punches. In many cases, workers use mobile or Internet applications to record their arrival and departure.
Newly compiled Kronos data shows that, basically, a full shift on a three-shift workday was eliminated in the first month of the pandemic. The blows of time have sunk a whopping 36%.
In a typical week, the temporal bumps rarely increase or decrease by more than 1% to 2%. See more Kronos data here
"This suggests that people are starting to return to work as the states open, but they do not return very quickly," said Dave Gilbertson, vice president of strategy and operations for HCM at Kronos.
Not all industries and regions of the country have suffered in the same way.
Las Vegas was particularly hard hit, as more than 90% of the hourly workers tracked by Kronos were initially laid off. Most work in thriving casinos with millions of people visiting the state, millions who disappeared during the closings.
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The health care industry was another surprise loser. The attention paid to the fight against COVID-19 has led people to stop consulting their doctor, dentist or hospital for elective and even critical procedures. Many health professionals have been dismissed.
It is not surprising that the big cities in the East and West have been the most affected by the devastation of the pandemic. The concentrated populations that rely heavily on public transport have suffered the most.
The South, where states are reopening more aggressively, has largely avoided the worst of the damage. Kronos found that changes among Florida retail workers have almost returned to normal, assuming the data captures the state as a whole.
"The South has not had the same type of closure as the coasts," said Gilbertson.
If there is good news, employees will return to work. But slowly. Temporal bumps continue to drop 28% in mid-April.
"The pace of recovery is going to be a bit slower than expected," said Gilbertson.
Lily: Why is the recovery of the US economy from coronavirus likely to be long and painful?
Most economists believe it will take years before the United States recovers completely. But the sooner recovery begins, the faster the damage can begin to reverse. Recent business and consumer surveys, rising stock prices
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and reports like the one produced by Kronos suggest that EE. United States You may be ready to begin your long journey home.